Upstream freshness. The newest data behind this page: Eurostat: STALE (6 identical weekly pulls since 2026-09-21) — data through 2026-W32, upstream's own updated field 2026-09-16; publisher cadence is quarterly since 2025; next expected update mid-December 2026 (ESMS metadata, 2026-07-08). ONS (England & Wales): current (last pull 2026-10-26) — data through 2026-W41. CDC (US): current (last pull 2026-10-26) — data through week ending 2026-10-17. NRS (Scotland): current (last pull 2026-10-26) — data through 2026-W42. A STALE feed means the publisher has not released new data; values here rest on the newest committed pull.
Ruling (E-1003-10, 2026-10-04): the registered expected-deaths rule stays; this table publishes with every print so the sensitivity around it is public; activation is a later, separate decision. INFORMATIONAL - feeds nothing.
Cumulative excess mortality this year under eleven "expected deaths" rules, in parts per million of S, on the maturity-fence panel (35 geos; fenced out: LIE, MNE, SVN). Panel edge 2026-W27, newest weekly pull 2026-10-26.
| expected-deaths rule | cum ppm of S | excl. edge week |
|---|---|---|
| straight line 2015–2019 (current registered policy) | -10.53 | -15.52 |
| average 2015–2019 | 18.87 | 15.26 |
| average 2016–2019 (Eurostat's own excess baseline) | 22.07 | 18.08 |
| straight line 2017–2019 | 27.96 | 28.33 |
| straight line 2016–2019 | -87.78 | -87.99 |
| straight line 2015–2018 | -24.82 | -33.22 |
| average 2023–2025 † | 4.84 | 1.76 |
| straight line 2022–2025 † | 24.35 | 21.22 |
| straight line 2023–2025 † | -3.43 | -4.41 |
| pooled line 2015–19 + 2022–25 † | -11.92 | -14.33 |
| pooled line 2015–19 + 2023–25 † | -0.23 | -3.18 |
† post-pandemic-anchored rule. Defensible rules disagree on the sign of the year - that is the finding this table exists to keep public. The registered rule's own reading is the first row.